Model differences in the Northeast on Thursday leads to a tricky forecast across the region. Temperatures will depend on the location of an area of low pressure that day into the evening hours. As you can see from the maps to the left, the European model is further south with the area of low pressure vs the GFS model. The European model argues that a cool east to northeasterly flow dominates while the GFS model indicates that winds late in the day shift around to a warmer downsloping northwesterly direction ahead of a cold front that comes in from the west.
The morning forecast is in the middle of these two scenarios (not as warm as the GFS operational model, not as cool as the European operational model) with a high of 45° in Boston, 50° in New York. Breaking down the forecast into hourlies, the expected high of 45° in Boston and 50° in New York City would likely be late afternoon highs as the surface winds do not switch until late afternoon. Until then, daytime temps in Boston could hover in the upper 30s to near 40°, and low to maybe mid 40s in New York City.
Risks to this forecast are cooler if winds switch around too late in the day to cause any major impacts, like the European model indicates.